13th August 2024

The 2023/24 Premier League season was another enjoyable one, with Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City team once again pipping Arsenal to the title, this time by just two points. 

Guardiola and City created history in doing so, becoming the first ever side in English football to win the top flight title four seasons in a row.

With City not having strengthened yet really, and several of their major rivals having made key signings, this could turn out to be yet another thrilling title battle……..

Premier League – Winner Betting Odds (Selected odds)

(Please note all all odds shown are correct at time of publishing)

Manchester City 6/4 (Ladbrokes)

Arsenal 15/8 (Bet365)

Liverpool 7/1 (BetFred)

Chelsea 20/1 (Bet365)

Manchester United 22/1 (Bet365)

Tottenham 25/1 (BetFred)

Newcastle United 33/1 (Coral)

Aston Villa 50/1 (Ladbrokes)

In recent years the Big 6 has become a Big 7 – sort of. In the 2022/2023 season Newcastle finished 4th, last season they finished 7th. But Aston Villa – against all odds – managed to finish fourth last season. It’s too early to call it a Big 8, though, and in all honesty it’s probably too early still to call it a Big 7.

Because, whilst you could see any of Chelsea, Man Utd or Spurs realistically putting up some sort of title challenge – just as you could easily see them flopping too – you just cannot see Newcastle or Villa doing the same. The very best they could hope for, surely, is to upset the big boys once again and get fourth place.

So can we see anyone beating City to the title this season?

Well, yes, we can. Liverpool look very big odds at 7/1. They haven’t signed anyone yet and have let Adrian, Thiago and Joel Matip go, so really need to make some moves. And of course, a lot will depend on how Arne Slot settles in, and how the players react to him. Losing a legend like Jurgen Klopp will obviously be difficult. But, they have managed to keep Mo Salah from the grasps of Saudi Arabia.

However, we believe Arsenal will be the major threat to City once again, and unlike the last two seasons where they went extremely close… We actually think they will do it this time!

Kevin de Bruyne is a year older, injuries are getting to him more now, and while City have brought in Savinho, they have also lost Julian Alvarez. Plus, we have a feeling this is going to be Guardiola’s last season. If that is leaked before the end of the season, as it was with Klopp, it will have a detrimental effect on the team.

Arsenal have brought in Riccardo Calafiori too, a top class Italian centre-back, so their almost impenetrable defence now looks even stronger.

Premier League – Top 4 Finish Betting Odds (Selected odds)

Man City 1/8 (Ladbrokes)

Arsenal 2/11 (Bet365)

Liverpool 4/7 (Coral)

Chelsea 6/4 (Bet365)

Man Utd 2/1 (Ladbrokes)

Newcastle 2/1 (Bet365)

Tottenham 2/1 (BetFred)

Aston Villa 3/1 (Coral)

This leads us nicely into the odds for a top four finish. As you can see, Man City and Arsenal aren’t worth betting on. Liverpool would be if you wish to place a big bet on them, but really we want to concentrate on who will join those three teams in the top four.

And the focus, really, has to be on the five other teams already mentioned – Chelsea, Man Utd, Newcastle, Tottenham and Aston Villa. If the top three perform to their best level, the race for fourth spot will be between those other five teams.

We just don’t see Villa being able to cope with the demands of Champions League football AND getting the top four again, so we are ruling them out. We don’t believe Newcastle or Tottenham will do it; we believe it will be between Chelsea and Manchester United. And call us stupid, but we actually fancy United to grab that fourth spot.

Premier League Top Goalscorer (Selected odds)

Erling Haaland 8/11 (BetFred)

Mo Salah 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Ollie Watkins 16/1 (Bet365)

Alexander Isak 16/1 (Bet365)

Darwin Nunez 18/1 (BetFred)

Dominic Solanke 20/1 (BetFred)

Cole Palmer 20/1 (Bet365)

Ivan Toney 25/1 (Coral)

Heung Min-Son 33/1 (Bet365)

With Erling Haaland an odds on shot to be topscorer, we really don’t believe it’s worth betting on him. Only a substantial outlay of cash would make it worthwhile, and an injury or two could ruin his chances.

It’s much better to be looking elsewhere and doing the players each way, as most bookies are offering 1/4 of the odds. So, for example, backing a player at 20/1 would net you  5/1 winner if he finishes second, third or fourth topscorer. And with Mo Salah a very nice 12/1 and Cole Palmer a juicy 20/1 shot, both look extremely tempting. If Haaland hits a bad patch or gets an injury, they could very easily get top goalscorer, but 2nd-4th is very, very possible. Ollie Watkins at 16/1 also looks interesting.

Premier League – Relegation Betting Odds (Selected odds)

Leicester City 4/9 (Ladbrokes)

Ipswich Town 10/11 (Coral)

Southampton 5/4 (Bet365)

Everton 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

Nottingham Forest 11/4 (BetFred)

Wolves 7/2 (Bet365)

Brentford 5/1 (Bet365)

Fulham 11/2 (Ladbrokes)

According to the odds, Leicester are absolutely nailed on to go straight back down, and while we think they probably will, we think Ipswich certainly will and are much tastier odds at almost evens.

Who will join those two though, if indeed it is those two who go down? Will it be Southampton, meaning all three promoted sides go straight back down, just like last season? That Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all went straight back down shows the gulf is getting wider between the Premier League and the Championship, and teams will find it more and more difficult to stay up.

However, Southampton have spent many years in the Premier League before relegation themselves in the 2022/2023 season and we think they might just stay up.

It’s actually Forest and Wolves who we believe will be most vulnerable for the drop and we are edging towards Forest.

Betting Recommendations

Ipswich Town to be relegated 10/11 (Coral) – 5 points

Arsenal to win the Premier League 15/8 (Bet365) – 3 points

Man Utd to finish in the top four 2/1 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Nottingham Forest to be relegated 11/4 (BetFred) – 2 points

Mo Salah to be top goalscorer 12/1 (Ladbrokes) – 1 point E/W

Cole Palmer to be top goalscorer 20/1 (Bet365) – 1 point E/W