England vs Spain – Euro 2024 Final Betting Tips

12th July 2024

At the start of the tournament, a lot of England fans thought they would win Euro 2024. After the way they played in the first four games, you’d be hard pressed to find a single soul who thought England would win it! But here they sit, in their second Euros Final in a row.

Not many fancied Spain. Not many at all, in the period of transition that they are in. Other than us at The Free Bet Guide, of course: “Spain to win Euro 2024 8/1 (Bet365) – 1 point”.

They have been the standout team of the tournament, by quite some distance, winning every single game and looking fantastic in the process. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams especially have shone. But England improved a lot against Switzerland, and against Holland, they were brilliant in the first half and for parts of the second half. It’s going to be an intriguing game, that’s for sure!

Match Betting Odds

(90 minutes only; extra time and penalties do not count)

Spain 6/4 (Betfred)
Draw 9/5 (Bet365)
England 12/5 (Ladbrokes)

(Please note all odds are correct at time of publishing)

 

This is so tight, it is unreal.

We can see it going either way, we really can. If England play as they did in the first four games, Spain win. If England play as they did in the last two games, they MIGHT win. But if Spain play as they have done for most of the tournament, it might not matter, because Spain might win, regardless. England cannot keep riding their luck, but it does seem like they have raised their game against better opposition, so if they can do so again, it might be enough.

Kyle Walker and whoever plays at left-back must keep Williams and Yamal quiet, that is key to victory for England. We believe Luke Shaw is best suited to stop Yamal, but Southgate might still not see him as fully fit.

Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and either Phil Foden/Kobbie Mainoo have to find a way of stopping Rodri from dictating the game. As with Man City, he pulls the strings for Spain, and stopping him operating is vital. Nobody all season has been able to do it; City never lost a single game when he played… Until the FA Cup Final. And that performance by Mainoo, coupled with Southgate’s love of two DM’s will probably see Mainoo get the nod.

With that in mind, and the fact finals are rarely quality, high scoring games, we can see the two sides cancelling each other out and playing out a draw.

Correct Score Market (Selected)

Draw 0-0 11/2 (Bet365)
Draw 1-1 5/1 (Betfred)
Spain 1-0 6/1 (Bet365)
England 1-0 15/2 (Bet365)
Spain 2-1 10/1 (Bet365)
England 2-1 12/1 (Bet365)

As mentioned, we believe this will be a tight, low scoring affair. Southgate will fear Spain and his policy is nearly always safety first. So it will be no surprise to see the negative 4-2-3-1 formation where we end up playing 7-3-0 a lot of the time with Spain knocking it about. We did look at the “Under 2.5 goals” market but the odds are only 8/15 (BetFred) for that, although don’t let that put you off, if you fancy a lumpy sum on it.

It’s the 1-1 draw that catches our eye. It’s not only the most common score in football, but just a score we see very likely to happen. Two very good sides, but not wanting to take too much of a risk, both capable of scoring, though.

To Lift the Trophy Odds

Spain – 4/6 (Bet365)

England – 11/10 (Bet365)

In what is basically a 50/50 shootout, it pays to go with the better odds. As already mentioned, at the start of the tournament, England were the favourites for a lot of people, and with every bookmaker. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, they are still all world class players. Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Kyle Walker, Kobbie Mainoo…. All absolute class acts. 

We can see a draw but England going on to win in extra time or on penalties. If you fancy England to lift the trophy but aren’t convinced we will do it in 90 minutes, then this bet is perfect for you.

Anytime Goalscorer

Jude Bellingham 9/2 (Bet365)

Cometh the hour, cometh the man. The big players usually step up in the biggest of games. Were it not for Bellingham’s bicycle kick against Slovakia, England would not even be in the final now. We expect a big performance from him, and can see him getting a goal too.

Betting Recommendations

England to lift the trophy – 11/10 (Bet365) – 4 points

Draw (After 90 minutes) 9/5 (Bet365) – 2 points

Draw 1-1 5/1 (Betfred) – 1 point

Jude Bellingham – Anytime Goalscorer 9/2 (Bet365) – 1 point