Euro 2024 Betting Tips and Preview

10th June 2024

With Euro 2024 being swollen to 24 teams for the first time, it gives the chance to smaller nations to compete. Georgia are in their first ever major tournament, while Albania are at only their second ever Euros.

We will have superstars such as Kylian Mbappe (France), Kevin de Bruyne (Belgium), Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), Luka Modric (Croatia), Florian Wirtz (Germany) and Lamine Yamal (Spain) on display.

Meanwhile, the home nations are represented by England who boast the likes of Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham amongst their ranks, and Scotland who have Andy Robertson, John McGinn and Scott McTominay at their disposal.

 

England’s Stage of Elimination Betting Odds

(Please note all odds shown are correct at time of publishing)

Winner 10/3 (Bet365)

Runner-Up 9/2 (Bet365) 

Semi-Finals 7/2 (Bet365)

Quarter-Finals 7/2 (Bet365)

Round of 16 9/2 (BetFred)

Group Stage 12/1 (BetFred)

 

Gareth Southgate takes a lot of criticism. You can see why when you look at abject performances like the Three Lions’ last friendly before the Euros kicks off, a dismal 1-0 defeat at home to Iceland. This followed a poor first half performance at home to Bosnia, which at least ended in a 3-0 victory, and two friendlies in March where England lost 1-0 at home to Brazil and drew 2-2 against Belgium.

The criticism may seem harsh when you consider that England sauntered through their qualifying group once again, winning 6 games and drawing the other 2 of the 8, but even that ended with a poor 1-1 draw at Macedonia. England did beat Italy home and away, though, the team who broke English hearts in the Euro 2020 Final.

Southgate may feel the criticism is even more unfair when he has taken them to a World Cup Semi-Final, a Euros Final and then a World Cup Quarter-Final, better than most England managers have ever done. But lots of fans feel he is wasting what is almost a “second Golden Generation” by playing boring, negative, defensive football, rather than unleashing the attacking potential in this squad.

The problem is, England’s defence is poor; so he may feel England need two holding midfielders – probably Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo. But that then means one player has to miss out. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden are surely assured of their starting spots. But if Foden is not played where fans are pleading for Southgate to put him – centrally – it means one less spot out wide, and Cole Palmer or Bukayo Saka miss out. Then there’s Antony Gordon, who could also be given the nod too, highlighting England’s embarrassment of riches in attacking areas.

England’s group is not easy. In Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia you have three teams that could potentially cause England problems. We don’t think England will win all three games, definitely not.

We do feel England will probably just about win the group, though. If England come second, the likely opponent in the Round of 16 is Germany. If England win the group, the Round of 16 game should be straightforward enough; but there are lots of different possibilities from two different groups so it’s difficult to guess who it would be, but it will be a team who finishes third in Group A or B. After that, there is a good chance England would face Italy, Spain or Croatia in the Quarter-Final, and that is where we think England will exit the tournament.

We worry there is a mental block to winning things for England. Ever since 1966, our fans and the media have built the team up and almost as soon as we face a top side (sometimes not even a top side; Iceland 2016), we lose. Unfortunately, we do not see it being any different here. 

Take the 7/2 on offer with Bet365 that England are knocked out in the Quarter-Finals. 

 

Tournament Winner Market (Selected Teams)

England 4/1 (BetFred)

France 4/1 (BetFred)

Germany 11/2 (Bet365)

Portugal 7/1 (Coral)

Spain 8/1 (Bet365)

Italy 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

Netherlands 16/1 (Bet365)

Belgium 18/1 (BetFred)

40/1 bar

 

We think you can rule out the other teams in the competition and just focus on the above 8. Other than Greece winning Euro 2004, you never get huge shocks at the World Cup or Euros; it’s always one of the big boys.

We’ve already said we don’t fancy England, despite what the bookmakers’ odds say.

Belgium and Holland, no matter how good their team might look on paper, fail their fans as often as England do. We feel the same again, so let’s rule those out. Italy are in a huge transitional period. They have finally lost the likes of Chiellini and Bonucci to Old Father Time, but they do have Alessandro Bastoni who is already world class. Giorgio Scalvini is heading that way but has been ruled out of Euro 2024 due to an ACL injury. Italy are always strong defensively, but this is the weakest Italy have looked that we can ever remember in the attacking department. They are in the group of death and might not even get out of it.

Spain, too, are no longer the force they once were. They will massively miss Gavi, who also sadly misses out with an ACL tear. In Rodri, though, they have the best defensive midfielder in the world, they have the experience of Dani Carvajal plus the exciting young Barcelona trio of Pedri, Fermin Lopez and Lamine Yamal. We think they could go very close.

While Portugal have the likes of Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias and Bruno Fernandes, they will once again rely on the ageing Cristiano Ronaldo, and we feel they will also come short.

You can never completely rule out Germany, especially on home soil. They will be very dangerous, especially with the likes of Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, and if they make a strong start to the tournament they could be difficult to stop, and we wouldn’t put anyone off a bet on them.

We can’t see past France, though. Their squad is ridiculously strong throughout and in new Real Madrid man, Kylian Mbappe, they have the best player in the world right now.

We feel a decent sized bet on France at 4/1 is in order with a small saver on Spain at 8/1 .

 

Top Goalscorer Market (Selected)

Kylian Mbappe 5/1 (BetFred)

Harry Kane 11/2 (Bet365)

Cristiano Ronaldo 12/1 (Coral)

Romelu Lukaku 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

Kai Havertz 28/1 (Bet365)

Jamal Musiala 40/1 (Ladbrokes)

Goncalo Ramos 40/1 (Bet365)

Lamine Yamal 50/1 (Bet365)

Florian Wirtz 50/1 (Coral)

 

When looking at top goalscorer markets at big tournaments, it can often be difficult to assess due to not always knowing who will be guaranteed starters. Take France for example, will it be Olivier Giroud or Marcus Thuram who leads the line?

The other two vital things to look at, are who takes penalties for each nation, and which teams are in their groups. Of all the big nations, Germany and Portugal definitely have the easiest groups, and it’s very possible that either or both of them could rack up a big score or two in their group games. If they do, and one of their players hits 3, 4 or 5 goals in those 3 games, the top goalscorer award could already be decided.

This is why Ronaldo, Havertz, Musiala and Wirtz really stand out as decent bets at big prices – and most bookies are offering 1/4 the odds each way at 4 places. Ronaldo could absolutely fill his boots against Turkey and Georgia – IF he’s still got it. 

Scotland Stage of Elimination Betting Odds (Selected)

Group Stage Evens (Bet365)

Round of 16 15/8 (Ladbrokes)

Quarter-Final 6/1 (Coral)

Scotland have never made it to the second round of any major tournament. EVER. We do not believe for a second that that will change here. We feel Germany will win the group, and Switzerland will finish second. For Scotland to finish third AND be one of the four best third placed teams, they’d have to beat Hungary. But this is Scotland. They will probably go out in fourth place with zero or one points.

Group E – To Qualify Betting Odds

Slovakia 10/11 (Bet365)

Slovakia are a strong, steady but unspectacular team. We feel they can take 4 points from their 3 games and that should be enough to see them qualify.

 

Betting Recommendations

France to win Euro 2024 4/1 (BetFred) – 5 points

Slovakia to Qualify from Group E 10/11 (Bet365) – 3 points

Scotland to be Eliminated at Group Stage Evens (Bet365 – 2.5 points

England to be Eliminated in Quarter-Finals 7/2 (Bet365) – 2 points

Cristiano Ronaldo Top Goalscorer 12/1  (Coral) – 1 point E/W

Kai Havertz Top Goalscorer 28/1 (Bet365) – 1 point E/W

Spain to win Euro 2024 8/1 (Bet365) – 1 point

Jamal Musiala Top Goalscorer 40/1 (Ladbrokes) – 0.5 points E/W

Florian Wirtz Top Goalscorer 50/1 (Coral – 0.5 points E/W