FC Porto vs Arsenal Betting Tips Champions League

19th February 2024

The Champions League knockout stages are here; the first half of the round of 16 was played last Tuesday and Wednesday, and the second half is this week.

Arsenal and Porto are both right in the mix in their respective leagues, although Porto are up against it being four points behind both Benfica and Sporting who both have games in hand. Arsenal, on the other hand, are only two points behind first placed Liverpool after their recent win over them, but Man City are only a point behind Arsenal with a game in hand. It is going to be a very intriguing end to the Premier League season.

Arsenal are in ridiculous form right now; they have won five in a row and their last two games saw them win 6-0 at West Ham and 5-0 at Burnley. They are genuine title challengers, and Declan Rice has been absolutely fantastic, potentially the last piece of the jigsaw for the Gunners.

FC Porto vs Arsenal Match Winner Market

FC Porto 21/5 (Coral)

Draw 27/10 (Ladbrokes)

Arsenal 7/10 (Bet365)

Turning our attention back to this game, Arsenal don’t need to win this game, of course. They would see a draw as a good result, while Porto wouldn’t see it as a bad result, either. It would mean they are still in the tie. So don’t let us put you off backing the draw if that is the way you think it will go.

We don’t think Porto are good enough to beat Arsenal. Even in the home leg. The vast distance in spending power between Premier League clubs and the rest of Europe now is so much, that it’s very difficult for teams outside of the Premier League to compete, other than the odd few in Italy, Spain, Germany and France.

Arsenal are far superior in almost every area (We would argue Porto goalkeeper Diogo Costa is quite a lot better than both David Raya and Aaron Ramsdale), and if they continue their league form, we see nothing other than an Arsenal win here. As we already said, Arsenal don’t NEED to win this game, but if they CAN win it by a goal or two, it’s half the job done before they go back to the Emirates.

7/10 may look a little skinny, but when you consider how good the Premier League is compared to the Liga Portugal, we don’t think it’s too bad at all. Unless you are an avid follower of European or Portuguese football, you won’t have even heard of the vast majority of their players.

To Be Shown A Card Market (Selected Players)

(All odds taken from Bet365)

Pepe 2/1

Borges Wendell 2/1

Fernandes Franciso Conceicao 9/4

Alan Varela 9/4

Joao Mario 9/4

Jorginho 3/1

Declan Rice 3/1

Kai Havertz 7/2

Ben White 7/2

One player you will have heard of is legendary former Real Madrid centre-back, and 40 year old Porto captain Pepe. We fancy a little something different to usual. Two players at Porto really stand out as great picks for a yellow card, which you could do as singles, a double, or add to your Bet Builders.

Pepe has spent his whole career being a right dirty so and so, and being up against Arsenal’s pacy, talented forward line, we think he’s a great shout for a card. He has 208 career yellow cards and 17 red cards, so it seems like an almost inevitability.

The other one, is Porto left back, Wendell. This season he has 6 yellow cards and 1 red card in 19 games. But against Arsenal, he will be up against the speed and trickery of Bukayo Saka. Saka is the third most fouled player in the Premier League this season, and for very good reason. Ziadu Sanusi is definitely out for this, and reports suggest possibly the rest of the season, so Wendell should be a certainty to start and a great chance of a card.

Correct Score Market (Selected)

Arsenal 1-0 11/2 (BetFred)

Arsenal 2-0 13/2 (Coral)

Arsenal 2-1 15/2 (Bet365)

Draw 0-0 9/1 (Coral)

Draw 1-1 13/2 (BetFred)

FC Porto 1-0 12/1 (Bet365)

FC Porto 2-0 28/1 (Ladbrokes)

FC Porto 2-1 16/1 (Bet365)

We don’t feel this will be a high scoring game. Most first leg games in the Champions League are low scoring affairs, and this season is no different (Leipzig 0-1 Real Madrid, Lazio 1-0 Bayern, PSG 2-0 Real Sociedad) unless there is a huge gap between the two teams (Copenhagen 1-3 Man City), as both sides try to keep it tight and remain in the tie. For this reason, a correct score on Arsenal to win 1-0 or 2-0, or to bet on Under 2.5 goals are very good bets.

Injury News

For Porto, Ivan Marcano is a long term absentee with a cruciate ligament tear, and as already mentioned, Zaidu is out. Jurrien Timber is also out for Arsenal with a cruciate ligament injury, while Thomas Partey (hamstring), Fabio Vieira (groin), Gabriel Jesus (kneee) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf) will all also miss out.

Betting Recommendations

Arsenal to win 7/10 (Bet365) 5 points

Under 2.5 goals 4/5 (Ladbrokes) 3 points

Borges Wendell 2/1 (Bet365) 3 points

Pepe 2/1 (Bet365) 2 points

Arsenal to win 2-0 13/2 (Coral) 1 point