Man City vs Liverpool Premier League Betting Tips

23rd November 2023

Any football fan who watched the absolute bore fests of England v Malta and then North Macedonia v England will be glad to get the proper football back. The less said about those England performances the better!

But what a treat we have in store to welcome the Premier League back. The two best teams in the league over the last 5 years go to head at the Etihad. After 12 games, they are also the top two in the Premier League table. Along with Arsenal, possibly, Liverpool are surely the only realistic challengers to City for the title this season.

Man City are going for a fourth consecutive title this season, but they have history against them in their quest. Huddersfield in the 1920’s, Arsenal in the 1930’s (both managed by the legendary Herbert Chapman), Liverpool in the 1980’s, Man Utd in the 1990’s-2000’s and for a second time in the 2000’s all won three titles in a row but were stopped from winning a fourth one. For City to do that they will have to overcome a Liverpool team desperate to win their second title under enigmatic German manager Jurgen Klopp, and history itself. 

Man City v Liverpool Match Winner Market

Man City 7/10 (Bet365)

Draw 16/5 (BetFred)

Liverpool 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

(Please note all odds are correct at time of article publishing)

All football bettors will have heard by now of “the curse of the early kickoff.” It seems whenever you bet on the favourites to win these games, they invariably fail and punters up and down the land see their accas down the drain before the 3pm’s have even started!

Will that happen here? We think it might…. Let’s be honest, you can picture City winning, you can picture a draw, you can even picture Liverpool winning. If we look at head to heads over the last 8 years, we can get a good picture. With City at home, they have 5 wins, 3 wins and 3 defeats in the last 11 games. This shows that Liverpool are one of the only teams who have a good chance of taking anything from the Etihad. If we look a little bit closer, though, we can see over the last 7 games, City actually have 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, and that defeat came in the FA Cup. Liverpool’s last win at the Etihad in the Premier League came all the way back in November 2015.

The big factor could well be the injury concerns that City have right now (see below).

We just don’t feel there is any value in the City to win market, and if anyone can pull something off at the Etihad, it is Liverpool. We feel a small stake on the draw is advisable.

(Please note all odds are correct at time of article publishing)

Correct Score Market

We will concentrate on the two most likely outcomes in the match, if it is to be a draw.

1-1 8/1 (BetFred)

2-2 12/1 (Bet365)

A 1-1 draw is probably the safest of the two options, but we just fancy goals. The way these two teams play, very attacking, love to score goals, but both have been conceding, I can just see another fairly high scoring game, so 2-2 is the score we are going for, again with a smaller stake.

First Goalscorer Market (Selected) (All odds from BetFred) 

As always we want to be with BetFred for this, to maximise the profit if the first goalscorer gets 2 or 3 goals.

Erling Haaland 5/2

Julian Alvarez 5/1

Mo Salah 5/1

Darwin Nunez 8/1

Diogo Jota 8/1

Jeremy Doku 9/1

Phil Foden 9/1

Whenever Man City play, the temptation is to go straight for Haaland as first goalscorer, and even anytime goalscorer. I have done it myself. But we feel the value here lies with Mo Salah, at double the odds of Haaland.

Erling Haaland has 2 goals in 5 games against Liverpool, and none of them were for Man City. Mo Salah has 11 goals in 18 games against Man City and he scored in all four of their fixtures against them last season.

The other thing to consider, is that Haaland might not even play. So you want to be getting your bets in on other goalscorers now while the odds are still high, because if Haaland does not play, the odds will plunge on Alvarez and Salah, etc!

Injury News 

For City, long term absentees Kevin de Bruyne, John Stones and Sergio Gomez are all definitely out. Mateo Kovacic also seems certain to miss out.

Erling Haaland, Ederson, Nathan Ake and Matheus Nunes are all doubts. Even with City’s strong squad, it would be a huge blow to be missing so many.

Thiago Alcantara and Andy Robertson will be big losses to Liverpool, but it’s nothing like what City have to contend with.

Betting Recommendations

Because of the injury list for Man City, coupled with the fact Liverpool are in good form in the league and have a decent record at City, our biggest bet recommendation is going to be Liverpool double chance.

4 points Liverpool or draw (double chance market) 23/20 (Coral)

2 points Draw 16/5 (BetFred)

2 points Mo Salah to score first goal 5/1 (BetFred)

1 point 2-2 draw 12/1 (Bet365)