Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund, Champions League Betting Tips

23rd October 2023

Newcastle United have not been in the Champions League Group Stage since the 2002/2003 season. Since then, their long suffering fans have seen them relegated to the Championship, come back up, endured the Mike Ashley ownership and gone through so many managers who don’t seem to have a clue when it comes to football management.

Now though, they have rich Saudi owners, they have Eddie Howe as manager, they have a team they can be proud of… And that team is back in the Champions League… And what a start they have made!

Drawn in the “group of death” alongside PSG, Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan, they gained a creditable draw in the first game, 0-0 in the San Siro against Milan. In the second game, they absolutely smashed French giants PSG 4-1 at St. James’ Park.

Dortmund, on the other hand, have had a fairly torrid start. A 2-0 defeat at PSG on match day one, was followed by a 0-0 draw at home to Milan. They will be desperate to get their first win on the board, in a group where every point will be absolutely vital. 

Both teams have started their league campaigns well. Newcastle find themselves in sixth position in the Premier League, but have four wins and a draw from their last five league games. Dortmund, meanwhile, are fourth in the Bundesliga with six wins and two draws from eight games, including five wins in a row. The game really is set up nicely with no excuse from either team.

Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund Match Winner Market

Newcastle United 3/4 (Ladbrokes)

Draw 14/5 (Bet365)

Borussia Dortmund 7/2 (Bet365)

(Please note all odds are correct at time of article publishing)

This is a tough game to predict and we will advise keeping stakes low. We also think it’s better to play it safe here. We think Newcastle will be far more tentative than they were against PSG. We also think Dortmund will be better defensively.

Newcastle will be happy with a point, and we think Dortmund would too, so a small bet on the draw is perhaps a good move.

Double Chance Market

Newcastle/Draw 1/5 (BetFred)

Newcastle/Dortmund 2/7 (BetFred)

Dortmund/Draw 21/20 (Bet365)

Newcastle have started amazingly well, but Dortmund are desperate for something, and we believe they WILL take something from the game so a bet on Dortmund or a draw is something we really like.

Dortmund are giants of the European game; they are in Europe every season and have been in the Champions League for 11 of the past 12 seasons; they are vastly experienced in European football. We think that benefits them here.

First Goalscorer Market (Selected) (All odds from BetFred)

Alexander Isak 7/2  

Callum Wilson 7/2

Miguel Almiron 8/1

Niclas Fullkrug 8/1

Sebastien Haller 9/1

Once again, this is a market that you should be betting on with BetFred, due to their special offer: “Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven: If the First Goalscorer gets a 2nd we DOUBLE the First Goalscorer odds, if they get a 3rd we TREBLE the odds.” The winnings are all paid in cash too, not free bets.

If you are placing  a first goalscorer bet, it really should always be with BetFred (if the game is part of this market) for this reason.

This game is a difficult one, though. We believe Dortmund take something. But we’d like to do a cover bet, just in case. 

The other fact is, Dortmund have been sharing their goals around this season. No-one stands out as a regular goalscorer. On the other hand, Newcastle have two, in Isak (9 goals all competitions) and Wilson (6 goals all competitions). Both could be worth a dabble – if they start. Isak is probably a little more suited to European football than Wilson, though, so we recommend a small bet on him to score first, with BetFred.

Total Goals Over or Under Market

As already mentioned, we think this will be a tight, low scoring game. We could see a 1-1 draw, maybe even 0-0 or 1-0 either way. So the 11/10 that Coral are offering on under 2.5 goals is a very tasty looking bet.

Injury News

Thomas Meunier and Mateu Morey definitely miss out for Dortmund. Youssoufu Moukoko missed the 1-0 win over Werder Bremen on Friday night with a hamstring injury; he is a doubt.

For Newcastle, Harvey Barnes and Joe Willock are still injured, but Eddie Howe is hopeful of having Sven Botman available after missing the last 4 games, but it will be a close one.

Betting Recommendations

3 points: Dortmund/Draw 21/20 (Bet365)

2 points: Under 2.5 goals 11/10 (Coral)

1 point: Alexander Isak 7/2 (BetFred)