Man City v Inter Milan Champions League Final Betting Tips

6th June 2023

After beating Manchester United in the FA Cup Final on Saturday, Manchester City are now one step away from matching the treble attained by their biggest rivals in 1999.

Only Inter Milan stand in their way. Inter are on a run of 11 wins from their last 12 games in all competitions. City have won 21, drawn 5 and lost only 1 of their last 27 games, that solitary defeat coming against Brentford where they rested players for the upcoming FA Cup and Champions League finals. So both teams are bang in form, and Manchester City fans should not underestimate the Italians.

Inter defeated their big Milan rivals, AC in both legs of their Champions League Semi-Final, winning 2-0 in the away leg and 1-0 in the home leg, with both games of course, being played in the shared San Siro Stadium. City despatched Real Madrid in the semis, drawing 1-1 in Madrid, before smashing the Spaniards 4-0 back at the Etihad in one of the all-time great European performances.

Inter are on for a double of their own; they finished third in Serie A but they defeated Juventus in the Coppa Italia Fina, winning both legs.

Man City are aiming to win their first ever Champions League crown, being runners up once, in 2020/2021. Inter, meanwhile, are aiming to win their fourth title, having last won it in the 2009/2010 season.

If you fancy the Italians, BetFred go a whopping 13/2 that they win in 90 minutes.

Manchester City v Inter Milan Match Winner Market

Manchester City 9/20 (Bet365)

Draw 15/4 (Bet365)

Inter Milan 13/2 (BetFred)

(Please note all odds are correct at time of article publishing)

If it is a concern to you that the game could go to extra time or even penalties, then you can bet on the Outright/To Lift The Trophy market:

Manchester City 2/9 (Bet365)

Inter Milan 7/2 (BetFred)

 

Inter Milan play with a 5-3-2 formation, with two out and out strikers, and this is something that City are going to have to figure out. Getting past an Italian team playing with a back 5 could be very difficult, and their defence won’t have played against two out and out strikers many times this season. 

Lautaro Martinez, with 28 goals in all competitions this season, is always dangerous. And while Romelu Lukaku (14 goals) hasn’t had his best season goals wise, he is always a handful for defenders and it will be interesting to see which of City’s centre-backs is tasked with battling against him physically. Edin Dzeko, who will probably start on the bench also has 14, while Nicolo Barella has got 9 goals from midfield.

For City, they have the most dangerous marksman in world football at the minute, in Erling Haaland who has plundered 52 goals in 52 games this season. However, he is going through his first ever dry spell for the club, having only scored 1 goal in his last 7 games in all competitions. Will he come alive in the Champions League Final?

If he doesn’t, where else might goals come from for City? Well, Julian Alvarez (17), Phil Foden (15) and Riyad Mahrez (15) are their next three highest scorers, and all three will probably start on the bench. This leaves Ilkay Gundogan (11) who is in red hot form with 6 goals in his last 6 games, Kevin de Bruyne (11), Bernardo Silva (7) and Jack Grealish (5).

It may take something special for a goal to be scored, so think long range strikes from Kevin de Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan.

First Goalscorer Market (Selected)

Erling Haaland 21/10 (Coral)

Julian Alvarez 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

Riyad Mahrez 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

Phil Foden 15/2 (Bet365)

Kevin de Bruyne 8/1 (Bet365)

Jack Grealish 8/1 (Coral)

Lautaro Martinez 10/1 (Bet365)

Ilkay Gundogan 11/1 (Bet365)

Edin Dzeko 11/1 (Bet365)

Romelu Lukaku 12/1 (Bet365)

Bernardo Silva 11/1 (Bet365)

Unless there are any complications during the week, City will have a full strength squad to pick from. For Inter, Henrik Mkhitaryan looks set to recover from his hamstring problem, Milan Skriniar will be ok to be used as a second half sub, but Joaquin Correa is likely to miss out with a calf injury.

I think this will be a tight game, with not many goals in it. Champions League Finals often are; the last three have all ended 1-0 and the one before that ended 2-0. I think Inter Milan are going to defend deep with the back five and try to limit City to as few chances as possible, and try to hit them on the break. 

BetFred go 11/10 that there will be under 2.5 goals in the game, and I like the look of that.

 

Betting Recommendations

Under 2.5 goals 11/10 (BetFred)

Man City to win 1-0 13/2 (Bet365) and Man City to win (as a smaller bet) 2-0 6/1 (BetFred) 

Kevin de Bruyne to score from outside the box 13/2 (Bet365)